I. EU Launches Sunset Review, Zero-Tariff Window Disrupted
On April 1, the European Commission suddenly initiated an anti-dumping sunset review investigation into Chinese aluminum profiles. The existing anti-dumping duties of 21.2%–32.1%, originally set to expire on March 31, will remain in place during the investigation period. The short-lived zero-tariff window for Chinese aluminum windows and doors entering the EU has been temporarily closed, forcing exporters to adjust pricing and delivery schedules for European orders.
II. Middle East Unrest Drives Aluminum Prices Higher
In late March, attacks on aluminum smelters in Bahrain and the UAE, combined with production cuts and force majeure declarations in Qatar and India, disrupted roughly 10% of global aluminum production capacity. LME aluminum briefly surged to a four-year high of 3,546 USD/ton, while SHFE aluminum exceeded 25,800 yuan/ton. Prices for aluminum profiles, Low-E glass and hardware rose across the board, pushing up project quotations in Europe, America and Southeast Asia by 8%–15%, and extending lead times to 45–60 days.
III. CBAM Carbon Tariff Takes Effect, Green Standards Tighten
The EU’s CBAM carbon tariff has been fully implemented since January 2026, imposing an additional levy of 3.7%–12% on aluminum profiles based on carbon emissions. International buyers now strictly require at least 50% recycled aluminum content, green electricity production, complete carbon footprint reports, and CE/EN 14351 certification. Leading Chinese manufacturers are accelerating low-carbon production lines, recycled aluminum applications and solar self-generation to gain an edge in high-end European and American orders.
IV. German Aluminum Expo Highlights Chinese System Windows
ALUMINIUM 2026, the international aluminum industry fair in Düsseldorf, will be held from October 6 to 8. Ninety percent of booths have already been sold, with a new special hall dedicated to sustainability and recycling. Chinese companies are preparing passive house windows, weather-resistant thermal-break profiles, typhoon-resistant curtain walls and low-carbon recycled aluminum windows as core exhibits, with expected inquiry growth of over 40% year-on-year.
V. Emerging Markets Become Safe Havens
- Middle East: Driven by Saudi Vision 2030 and Dubai infrastructure projects, orders for sand-resistant and high-insulation aluminum windows rose 35% month-on-month.
- ASEAN (RCEP): Zero tariffs and real estate recovery have made Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia key destinations for overseas factories and transit trade, helping firms avoid anti-dumping duties in the West.
- North America: Under high U.S. tariffs and Section 301 investigations, more Chinese enterprises are setting up plants in Mexico to serve the U.S. market locally.
VI. Industry Outlook
In the short term, aluminum prices will remain volatile at high levels, pressured by the EU review, geopolitical tensions and carbon tariffs. Chinese manufacturers are upgrading to high-end energy-saving, low-carbon and smart windows, diversifying into RCEP, Middle East and Latin American markets, and building local overseas production and warehousing capacity.
From Q2 to Q3 2026, exports of aluminum profiles and windows are expected to diverge: pressure in Europe and the U.S., while strong growth continues in emerging markets.