On March 31, the EU’s 21.2%–32.1% anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum profiles expired without a review, opening a zero-tariff window for China’s aluminum windows. Concurrently, FENSTERBAU FRONTALE 2026 (Nürnberg, March 24–27) saw Chinese firms showcase energy-saving system windows, thermal-break profiles, and low-carbon recycled-aluminum products; European inquiries surged 40% MoM, with passive-building orders in Germany/Northern Europe up 30%+.
Aluminum Price Volatility & Supply Shocks: Cost vs. Order Dynamics
As of March 27, LME aluminum traded near $3,200/ton and SHFE aluminum at 23,700–23,900 yuan/ton, down over 5% from mid-March highs, easing raw material pressure. Yet global supply remains tight: Bahrain smelter cuts, India’s Hindalco force majeure, and Guinea bauxite rules disrupt supply, lifting premiums in Europe/North America—strengthening China’s role as a stable supplier.
EU/US Policy Tightens: Green Compliance Is Mandatory
The EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act enforces local-content rules for public procurement; CBAM will tax aluminum products from 2027, requiring ≥50% recycled content and full carbon-footprint compliance. The U.S. launched Section 301 investigations in March targeting aluminum goods and cracking down on transshipment via Vietnam/Thailand, pushing Chinese firms to accelerate local manufacturing, green-aluminum certification, and carbon accounting.