Demand composition underwent a historic shift, with new energy overtaking real estate as the industry’s core growth engine. The share of construction aluminum dropped to 21%, dragging on overall performance with diminishing impact. New energy vehicles require 200 to 250 kilograms of aluminum per unit; with full-year vehicle output and sales growing at 20% in 2026, demand for lightweight alloy profiles kept rising. Photovoltaic installations consume roughly 12 tons of aluminum per megawatt, and the full-year 200GW installation target will generate an additional 600,000 tons of aluminum demand. Orders for high-voltage power transmission, energy storage cabinets and photovoltaic frame profiles are booked through late Q3. Many manufacturers phased out low-end common door and window profile lines to expand precision, high-toughness industrial alloy extrusion capacity. Premium pricing persisted for fluorocarbon-coated, heat-insulated broken-bridge and high-strength lightweight profiles, while low-end homogeneous products faced squeezed profit margins.

Rigid supply constraints underpinned industry fundamentals. China’s electrolytic aluminum output is capped at a policy ceiling of 45 million tons, with only 500,000 to 600,000 tons of new effective capacity set to launch this year—supply growth far lagging consumption expansion. Overseas markets grappled with high electricity costs and geopolitical conflicts; over 2 million tons of Middle Eastern aluminum capacity underwent cuts or shutdowns, while aging European and American smelters regularly reduced output amid losses. Global tradable aluminum inventories stood at a four-year low, with deliverable LME stocks covering merely nine days of global consumption, representing critically insufficient safety reserves. New overseas capacity is concentrated in Indonesia and India with slow commissioning timelines, unable to fill supply shortfalls in the short term. The full-year tight aluminum market balance is unlikely to reverse, providing solid bottom support for aluminum prices and profile processing margins.

Industrial transformation and green upgrading advanced in tandem in June. Multiple regions rolled out subsidies for ultra-low emission standards and recycled aluminum utilization for aluminum profile producers. A batch of manufacturers launched recycled aluminum melting and casting lines, lifting the proportion of recycled aluminum profiles. Leading enterprises accelerated overseas layout via a model of “semi-finished domestic processing plus deep processing and assembly abroad”, establishing factories in Thailand and Morocco to bypass tariff barriers and serve local photovoltaic and automotive end markets. Digital transformation gained traction, with intelligent extrusion, online aging treatment and fully automated coating lines boosting output and yield rates at top manufacturers by over 30% versus small and medium peers.

Looking ahead, July and August will remain the traditional domestic off-season, with construction profile demand unlikely to rebound sharply. However, steady industrial profile orders and overseas exports will sustain production and sales. Aluminum prices may see minor corrections driven by macro sentiment in the short run, yet global supply deficits will prevent deep price declines. Market divergence will widen further: leading enterprises secured with long-term new energy contracts, established export channels and advanced high-alloy technology will maintain stable profits. Small manufacturers reliant solely on low-end door and window profiles without overseas sales channels will face mounting operational pressure, accelerating consolidation and reshuffling across the sector. Long-term growth drivers for the entire industry are clearly anchored in three tracks: new energy lightweighting, global export expansion and low-carbon recycled aluminum. High-end positioning, global footprint and decarbonization have become indispensable paths for aluminum profile enterprises to survive and thrive.