In late March 2026, the global aluminum profile door and window industry has entered a rare phase of intertwined challenges and opportunities. A sharp drop in aluminum prices, the upcoming expiration of EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum profiles, and unexpected disruptions in overseas supply have combined to create a golden window for China’s aluminum window and door exports: lower costs, potential tariff elimination, and stronger global demand. The global market structure is rapidly reshaping.I. Plunging Aluminum Prices Sharply Reduce Export CostsAs of March 20, international and domestic aluminum prices have retreated significantly from recent highs.SHFE Aluminum: Fell from a high of 25,300 yuan/ton on March 13 to around 24,020 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,280 yuan/ton, or 5.06%, in just 8 trading days.LME Aluminum: Pulled back from 3,546 USD/ton to around 3,360 USD/ton, a correction of nearly 5%.The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, high domestic aluminum inventories reaching a three-year high of 1.31 million tons, weaker-than-expected downstream construction demand, and fading geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East. For export-oriented manufacturers, raw material costs have decreased by 5%–8%, significantly improving price competitiveness in overseas markets.II. EU Anti-Dumping Tariffs Set to Expire

The EU’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum profiles (ranging from 21.2% to 32.1%) are scheduled to expire on March 31, 2026. With no review initiated so far, the tariffs are highly likely to be removed entirely.In response, major Chinese manufacturers have accelerated CE certification and EN 14351-1 compliance, targeting low-carbon housing projects in Germany and passive buildings in Northern Europe. European buyer inquiries have surged by 30%–40%, with orders for thermal-break aluminum windows and system windows rising by more than 25% month-on-month.III. Global Supply Disruptions Highlight China’s Production AdvantagesRecent supply shocks overseas have further strengthened China’s position as a stable supplier:Bahrain’s major smelter reduced output, affecting nearly 9% of global primary aluminum supply.India’s Hindalco declared force majeure on extruded profiles, tightening high-value-added aluminum supplies.New bauxite regulations in Guinea may cut exports by 30–50 million tons annually, supporting long-term aluminum prices.Against this backdrop, China’s stable production capacity and complete industrial chain have made its aluminum windows and doors a preferred choice for global construction demand.IV. Targeted Expansion Across Major Overseas MarketsSoutheast Asia: Supported by infrastructure booms in the Philippines and Indonesia, demand for wind-resistant and thermal-break aluminum windows remains robust.Middle East: Driven by Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Chinese enterprises are accelerating local assembly plants to avoid shipping and tariff risks.North America: Exporters are using Malaysia and Thailand as transit hubs to bypass high tariffs and expand in the high-end window market.Europe: With expected zero tariffs and lower material costs, China’s energy-saving and low-carbon system windows are poised for rapid growth.V. Industry Strategies and Outlook

Chinese companies are seizing the moment by securing European and Southeast Asian orders, adopting flexible raw material pricing, and upgrading to higher-margin smart and energy-saving products.In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 23,500–24,500 yuan/ton. From April onward, as peak construction season arrives, prices may rebound. Industry insiders agree that the second quarter of 2026 will be a golden period for China’s aluminum window and door exports, supported by lower costs, favorable tariff changes, and tight global supply.